Executive Summary

U.S. livestock and meat trade figures provided by the USDA were recently updated with values spanning through Aug ’21. Highlights from the updated report include:

• U.S. pork export volumes finished slightly below previous year levels throughout Aug ’21 while pork import volumes reached an 18 year high level. Aug ’21 net pork trade remained at a three year low seasonal level for the second consecutive month, finishing 6.9% below previous year levels.
• U.S. beef & veal export volumes increased 21.3% on a YOY basis throughout Aug ’21, reaching a record high monthly level, however net beef & veal trade remained at a negative level for the third consecutive month.
• U.S. net broiler trade remained higher on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month, increasing by 6.1%.

Additional Report Details

Pork – Net Trade Remains at a Three Year Seasonal Low Level, Down 6.9% YOY

According to the USDA, U.S. pork export volumes declined 0.2% on a YOY basis throughout Aug ’21, finishing below previous year levels for the second consecutive month. Pork export volumes had reached record high seasonal levels over four consecutive months through Jun ’21, prior to declining on a YOY basis throughout the months of July and August. YOY declines in pork export volumes were led by volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, while pork export volumes destined to Mexico remained most significantly higher on a YOY basis throughout the month. A 51.8% YOY decline in pork export volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan more than offset a 15.9% YOY increase in volumes destined to all other countries throughout Aug ’21.

Mexico and Japan have historically been the largest importers of U.S. pork products, accounting for over 45% of the total U.S. pork export volumes throughout the past five years. Combined U.S. pork export volumes destined to Mexico and Japan have increased by 16.7% on a YOY basis throughout the past 12 months. Throughout the past 12 months, YOY increases in U.S. pork exports have been led by product destined to Mexico, while shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period. U.S. pork exports destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan remain elevated when compared to historical figures, however.

U.S. pork import volumes reached an 18 year high level throughout Aug ’21, finishing 37.2% above previous year figures. The YOY increase in pork import volumes was the tenth experienced throughout the past 11 months. The increase in pork import volumes, coupled with the decline in export volumes, resulted in Aug ’21 U.S. net pork trade finishing 6.9% below previous year levels, remaining at a three year low seasonal level for the second consecutive month.

’19-’20 annual net pork trade increased 25.3% YOY, finishing at a record high level for the third consecutive year. ’20-’21 YTD net pork trade has declined by 1.9% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season, however.

Beef & Veal – Exports Reach a Record High Monthly Level, Net Trade Remains Negative

U.S. beef & veal export volumes reached a record high monthly level throughout Aug ’21, finishing 21.3% above previous year levels. The YOY increase in beef & veal export volumes was the 11^th experienced in a row. YOY increases in beef & veal export volumes were led by shipments destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, followed by shipments destined to Mexico and Japan, while export volumes destined to South Korea finished most significantly lower on a YOY basis throughout the month.

Japan, South Korea, China, Hong Kong & Taiwan, Mexico and Canada have historically been the largest importers of U.S. beef & veal products, combining to account for nearly 90% of the total U.S. beef & veal export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. beef & veal export volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, while shipments destined to Canada and Vietnam have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.

Aug ’21 U.S. beef & veal import volumes declined on a YOY basis for the second consecutive month, finishing down 14.8%. Despite declining on a YOY basis, beef & veal import volumes continued to exceed export volumes for the third consecutive month throughout Aug ’21, resulting in U.S. beef & veal net trade finishing at a negative level.

’19-’20 annual beef & veal net trade finished at a negative level for the first time in the past three years. ’20-’21 YTD net beef & veal trade has rebounded heading into the final month of the production season, however, and is on pace to reach an eight year high annual level.

Broilers – Exports & Net Trade Remain Higher YOY for the Fifth Consecutive Month

U.S. broiler export volumes remained higher on a YOY basis for the fifth consecutive month, finishing 5.5% above previous year levels. YOY increases in U.S. broiler export volumes were led by shipments destined to Cuba, followed by volumes destined to Mexico and Kazakhstan, while volumes destined to China, Hong Kong & Taiwan declined most significantly on a YOY basis throughout the month.

Mexico has historically been the largest importer of U.S. broilers, accounting for over one fifth of the total U.S. broiler export volumes throughout the past five years. Throughout the past 12 months, U.S. broiler export volumes destined to Mexico have increased most significantly on a YOY basis, while shipments destined to Vietnam and Georgia have declined most significantly on a YOY basis over the period.

U.S. broiler import volumes finished below previous year levels for the second consecutive month during Aug ’21, declining by 14.8%. Broiler import volumes remained at insignificant levels relative to export volumes, as Aug ’21 imports amounted to just 2.2% of export volumes. The YOY increase in broiler export volumes, coupled with the YOY decline in import volumes, resulted in U.S. broiler net trade finishing 6.1% higher on a YOY basis during Aug ’21. The YOY increase in broiler net trade was the fifth experienced in a row.

’19-’20 annual net broiler trade finished up 2.7% YOY, reaching a six year high level. ’20-’21 YTD net broiler trade increased by an additional 5.2% on a YOY basis heading into the final month of the production season and is on pace to reach a record high level.

Combined Net Trade

Overall, combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers increased on a YOY basis for the sixth consecutive month during Aug ’21, finishing up 79.0 million pounds, or 8.5%. Combined net trade of U.S. pork, beef and broilers remained below the record high seasonal level experienced throughout Aug ’11, finishing below record high seasonal levels for the second consecutive month.